I just returned from my hometown, Phoenix Arizona.  Things are tough there, and I feel terrible for the residents.  Foreclosures up over 30,000 so far this year.  By comparison, in 2006 there were 1500.  Some are illegal residents (don’t ask me how they got loans), some are those that ended up under water when their ARM’s reset, and then there is job loss, some tragic family stories I heard of (one foreclosure was the result of both parents dying, the children leaving to live with an Aunt), and finally those that just walk away.

With the economy looking negative, many real estate experts and analysts believe the “Phoenix” will rise again.  I hope they are right.  Here’s my personal story:

Oil is about to hit 100 bucks.  I think Thursday is the day, as long as Hurricane Ike stays south and away from those Gulf platforms, we are going down.  My best guess on the show today was by October 1st, you will see oil at $90. 

In fact, it should be lower than that, but there are still plenty of pension and hedge funds that are investing in oil.  Does that bother me? The evil speculators? No, it doesn’t, because it’s teachers’ retirement funds, and if the market is sour, I hope the teachers, the autoworkers, and the rest of America benefits.  I am a capitalist, no apologies.

Second, I don’t feel good about Lehman (LEH), and I was very careful on the show today not to drink the Wall Street Kool-Aid.  Strategic alternatives? Do you know what I think that means? They are FOR SALE, kids, to anyone that will take them.  The Fed isn’t coming to the rescue this time, and management at Lehman knows this, they’ve heard it.  They will be the poster child, the example, that the U.S. government will use to say “we don’t bail out troubled banks, we are not putting taxpayer money at risk.” Just my opinion, but let’s just say I’ve heard things today that make me feel like I’m right.  Talk to Ron Ianieri from Options University.  We agree.

Finally, I am going to win a bet I made when oil was at $120.  On the other side was a $140 price target, mine was $100.  I plan to order everything at Nobu here in New York, then more to take home for my cat Macy.  Never bet against the Casone Exchange!

CC

On Monday I promised to post the video from our interview with former FEMA Director Michael Brown. Three years ago he was in charge of FEMA, and after Hurricane Katrina he took the fall for the President, for Michael Chertoff, basically the entire agency.

Was it fair that he was fired? I can’t answer that. But, it was extremely brave I believe for him to come on national television on a day that everyone had their eyes on Hurricane Gustav. He was candid, he was forthright, and I think you’ll agree, himself.

Here’s the clip:

Dr. Bruce Weinstein joined us yesterday on the 12pm ET hour of Fox Business. Tom and I took the quiz, but I promised all of you the quiz for yourselves. Here you go:

How ethically intelligent are you? Take the following quiz to find out.

1. One of the people you have just hired seems to be attracted to you, and you are attracted to this person. Both of you are single. Would you:

A) Ask the person out on a date.
B) Have only a professional relationship with the person.
C) Ask the person if your intuition is correct, and if it is, discreetly pursue a romantic relationship.

2. A co-worker in the next cubicle has a habit of spending a lot of making loud and distracting personal phone calls about things that are obviously trivial. Would you:

A) Ask the person to keep the volume at a reasonable level.
B) Focus on your own work.
C) Talk with the person about why it’s in everyone’s interest to limit personal phone calls.

(more…)

A couple of Texas related things for you this week.  First, I am featured in an article from my hometown, Dallas.  Most of my family is still in Texas (in fact I am rushing to get to a flight at La Guardia to go see Dad for Father’s Day.)  Yes, I am flying American, a full report on Monday.

My Mother and I moved to Phoenix when I was 10, so most of my education was there, but summers and holidays were always spent in Big D.  Anyway, there is a profile in this month’s Southern Vanity I’d like to share with you:

http://www.southernvanity.com/coverStory.htm

Also, last night I hosted the American Business Awards at the Marriott Marquis.  There were so many companies from Dallas and from Irving, it became a running joke.  You can see a full list of winners here:

http://www.stevieawards.com/aba/

Have a Great Weekend.  Be nice to Dad!

CC